Research Findings Report Widespread Chesapeake Bay Osprey Starvation

Scientific Warnings Compounded by Overwhelming Public Support for Ending Large-Scale Menhaden Fishing in the Bay

New research released this week by the Center for Conservation Biology (CCB) at William & Mary warns of a widespread osprey population decline in the Bay, providing evidence that reduced food availability is placing significant stress on the Chesapeake Bay’s osprey population. 

The report confirms a critical environmental reality: osprey aren’t successfully reproducing in saltier waters around the Chesapeake, reflecting a severe lack of food in the Bay’s waters. Menhaden are an important food for osprey in the Bay’s saltier waters.  

• Unsustainable Productivity: In the vast majority of the Bay—waters with a salinity greater than 5 ppt (covering over 80% of the tidal surface)—ospreys produced an average of only 0.33 young per pair. This rate is significantly below the minimum threshold of 0.8 young per pair required to sustain the population. 
• Food Stress is Primary Cause: Direct observations during nest visits point to the loss of young, primarily due to starvation and subsequent brood reduction, as the major contributing factor to nest failure. This outcome strongly indicates insufficient local food availability in areas where the osprey diet relies on forage fish like menhaden. 
• Bay-Wide Decline Predicted: The level of reproduction around the Bay’s tributaries isn’t enough to make up for the crisis along saltier waters where the majority of nests are located. With 7.5 times more nesting pairs located in the high-salinity deficit areas, the Bay-wide osprey population is not self-sustaining and is predicted to decline sharply if these trends continue. 

These scientific warnings are compounded by other escalating signs, including a decline in menhaden catches by local watermen who harvest them for bait. The Virginia reported menhaden bait harvest dropped from 5.4 million pounds in 2019 to less than 1 million pounds in 2024, according to data from the Virginia Marine Resources Commission.  The sustained operations of the industrial menhaden reduction fishery of Omega Protein harvest more than 100 million pounds of menhaden annually in Virginia’s portion of the Bay. 

A recent, bipartisan poll of Virginia voters, commissioned by CBF, confirms overwhelming public support for regulatory reform: 

• 92 percent of Virginia voters believe the state should leave more menhaden in the Chesapeake Bay to support the ecosystem. 
• 79 percent support ending large-scale commercial menhaden fishing in the Bay until science can demonstrate that the harvest level is compatible with a healthy ecosystem. 

This level of consensus across party lines, age, and geography signals a clear public mandate for change. 

Chesapeake Bay Foundation Forage Campaign Manager Will Poston issued the following statement:  

“Alarm bells are still ringing up and down the Chesapeake Bay. Unfortunately, 2025 was another year during which scientists saw osprey chicks starving in nests along the saltier waters where they traditionally depend on menhaden for food.  

“An overwhelming majority of Virginians want action to leave more menhaden in the Chesapeake Bay. The Chesapeake Bay is changing, and the science remains woefully inadequate. Virginia should pause industrial menhaden fishing in the Chesapeake Bay until science can show whether this fishery is sustainable. At the same time, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission should heed the results of the latest menhaden stock assessment to help ensure there are enough menhaden to fulfill their role in the ecosystem.”