2026 Marks Historic Lows for Breeding Ospreys in Chesapeake Bay, Research Shows
Another year of crisis linked to lack of menhaden for food
The 2026 season was the worst year ever recorded for breeding ospreys in the Chesapeake Bay, according to research released Monday by the Center for Conservation Biology at William & Mary.
This continues a yearslong trend of osprey reproductive rates struggling particularly in saltier parts of the Bay, where they fell well below rates needed to sustain the population. Within tidal freshwater parts of the Bay, productivity rates only barely met the threshold needed to maintain osprey populations, according to the research, which monitored 937 osprey pairs among 23 study areas from March to August.
In 2026, a prime factor was food stress causing chicks to starve, researchers found. And the extreme food stress in recent years “appears to be caused by” changes to the availability of Atlantic menhaden, the report said.
Average productivity in saltier parts of the Bay was 0.25 young per pair in 2026 – well short of the roughly 1 young/pair breeding rate needed to maintain a stable population on a global scale.
Dr. Bryan Watts and other researchers had previously linked unprecedented levels of starving osprey chicks in the Bay to concerns around menhaden, a nutrient-packed fish that is a key food source for osprey and many other species.
Other research in recent years has documented osprey chicks starving in nests across portions of the Chesapeake Bay where osprey primarily rely on menhaden for food.
While other factors could be at play as well, ensuring more menhaden are left in the water is the most feasible immediate step to help osprey recover, the Chesapeake Bay Foundation said.
Virginia is the only state along the Atlantic coast that still allows industrial menhaden fishing in state waters. That lone remaining industrial operation—Omega Protein and their fishing partner Ocean Harvesters—extracts over 100 million pounds of menhaden from Chesapeake Bay waters each year, with limited scientific understanding of the impacts to the Bay’s ecology or coastal communities.
Widespread osprey nesting failures are among several warning signs that the menhaden population is struggling both in the Bay and along the Atlantic Coast, including plummeting catches by small-scale watermen who catch menhaden for bait for local crab fisheries.
The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC) is currently weighing changes that could reduce the menhaden harvest in the Bay by up to half and better spread the harvest throughout the season, lessening some of the stress on this struggling estuary.
The public can submit comments on the proposal, known as Draft Addendum II, until October 9. There are also in-person hearings in the coming weeks where the public can weigh in, including one at Annapolis High School in Annapolis, Maryland on Tuesday, September 15 from 6 p.m.-8 p.m. and one at Fort Monroe in Hampton, Virginia on Monday, September 28 from 6 p.m.-8 p.m.
Chesapeake Bay Foundation Virginia Executive Director Chris Moore issued the following statement:
“Ospreys are in a downward spiral. This research confirms what people who know the Chesapeake Bay have been seeing for years.”
“To help reduce the number of starving ospreys, we need to ensure the fish are there for them to eat. These data should spark strong action from the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission on menhaden in the Chesapeake Bay, which could go a long way toward ensuring a better future for the Bay’s osprey population. The Bay and its osprey can’t wait any longer. The commission must act if we have any chance at reversing these dire ecological warning signs.”
“It’s time for the ASMFC to cut the Bay’s industrial menhaden harvest in half, spread out fishing pressure better throughout the season, and protect menhaden for future generations.”
